WEBVTT FILE

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Nima sababdan davlat qarzni to'lash,

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boshpanasiz odamlarni ovqatlantirish,

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ishsizlikni tugatish yoki

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yana qandaydir maqsad uchun

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shunchaki ko'proq pul bosib chiqara

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olmasligi to'g'risida hech o'ylab ko'rganmisiz?

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Bu juda oddiy savol bo'lib

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ko'rinishi mumkin,

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ammo menimcha,

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odamlar bu kabi savollarni
berishdan tortinadi.

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Shunday bo'lsada, bunga
qiziqadigan odamlar kam emas.

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Qisqa javobni bir so'z
bilan aytish mumkin –

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inflyatsiya

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Inflyatsiya

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«pul massasi hajmining oshishiga bog'liq bo'lib,

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bu narxlarning umumiy darajasining qat'iy

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va sezilarli darajada o'sishiga va,

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natijada valyuta qadrining pasayishiga olib keladi».

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Men bu masalaga yana qaytaman.

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Avval, biz pul...

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nima ekanligini aniqlab olishimiz kerak.

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Bu bir qarashda ravshan bo'lib

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tuyulishi mumkin, ammo
pul mutlaqo ichki qiymatga

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ega emasligini tushunib olishimiz
kerak bo'ladi.

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Bundan pul aslida qiymatga ega

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emas degan ma'no chiqadi.

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U bilan buyumlar sotib olish

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mumkinligi tufayligina u qadrli.

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Ammo agar siz hech kim yashamaydigan
orolda adashib qolsangiz,

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pul butunlay keraksiz bo'lib qoladi.

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Biz pulning qadri bor deb

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ishonganimiz uchungina pul qadrga ega.

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Bu «Tinkerbell ta'siri»
deb atalib,

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men buni birinchi marta
«Vsauce» Internet-kanalida eshitganman.

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Tinkerbell ta'siri biz biror narsaga

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ishonganimiz uchun u mavjud bo'lishini

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tasvirlash uchun qo'llaniladi.

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Pul bilan ham vaziyat shunday.

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Faraz qilib aytganda,

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agar odamlar to'satdan pul

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qadrsiz deb ishonsa,

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pulning qadri qolmaydi.

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Albatta, har doim ham shunday bo'lib kelmagan.

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Pul ming yildan beri mavjud bo'lib,

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undan birinchi marta foydalanilganda

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u tovar pul shaklida bo'lgan.

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Buyumlar qadr va vazifasi
bor narsalarga,

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masalan tuz, ziravor, ot, qurol hamda

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texnik jihatdan ichki
qiymati yo'q, lekin noyobligi tufayli

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deyarli hamma joyda valyuta sifatida

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qabul qilinadigan oltin va kumish kabi

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qimmatbaho metallarga ayirboshlangan.

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Undan keyin, vakil pul ham mavjud.

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Bor mulkingizni o'zingiz bilan

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olib yurish qiyin bo'lgani
uchun vakil puldan foydalanish

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mantiqqa to'g'ri keladi.

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Bunda siz oltiningizni bankka topshirasiz,

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bank esa uni xavfsiz saqlab,

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sizga siz shu oltinning egasi
ekanligingizni

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tasdiqlovchi qog'oz
hujjat beradi.

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Bu qog'ozlar pul sifatida ishlatilishi mumkin,

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chunki istagan odam bankka borib,

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uning o'rniga oltinni olishi mumkin.

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Ammo bugungi kunda

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dunyodagi deyarli barcha mamlakatlar

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fiat pul ishlatadi.

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Fiat pul uning puli qadrga ega bo'ladi
degan davlatga bo'lgan

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e'tiqod va ishonchni talab qiladi.

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Misol sifatida

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nisbatan yosh mamlakatni

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ko'rib chiqadigan bo'lsak,

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Qo'shma Shtatlarida 200 yil mobaynida
uchala pul tizimi ham amal qilgan.

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1792 yilda Qo'shma Shtatlari

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Yevropa pulini ishlatishni to'xtatganida,

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1792 yilgi Tanga qonuni [Coinage Act]

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Amerika dollari kiritilishiga sabab bo'ldi.

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Dastlab, Amerika dollari tovar pul, oltin,

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kumush va mis tangalar shaklida bo'lgan.

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Tangalar haqiqiy oltin,

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kumush va misdan yasalgan bo'lib,

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tanga yasashda ishlatilgan

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ushbu metallarning qiymati

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ularning nominal bahosiga

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aynan teng bo'lgan.

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Undan keyin, 1900 yilgi Oltin standarti

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qonuni qabul qilinishi bilan

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mamlakat tovar va vakil pul ishlatishga o'tdi.

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Davlat dollar kupyurasini chiqarib,

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uni istalgan paytda oltinga
almashtirish mumkin edi.

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Oltin standarti o'sha davrda
ko'p mamlakatlarda

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amal qilgan vakil pul turidir.

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Bu mamlakatlar o'rtasidagi

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valyuta ayirboshlash kursini

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aniq hisoblashning samarali usuli bo'lgan.

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Masalan, agar bir gram oltin Britaniyada 1 funt,

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Amerikada esa 1,5 dollarga
teng bo'lsa, unda siz

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1 funt 1,5 dollarga teng ekanligini
osongina bilib olishingiz mumkin.

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Oltin tangalar muomaladan chiqarilib,

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boshqa tangalarda kumushdan

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foydalanish tugatildi va

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shu bilan Qo'shma Shtatlarida

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tovar pul amalda bekor qilindi.

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1971 yilda Richard Nikson

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Oltin standartini rasmiy ravishda bekor qildi

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va AQSh fiat pul tizimiga o'tdi.

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Bugungi kunda pul oltin yoki qiymatga ega

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boshqa narsalar bilan ta'minlanmagan.

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Endi ko'rib chiqilayotgan savolga qaytaylik.

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Talab va taklif grafigi nima uchun bu
narxning oshishiga

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olib kelishini ko'rsatadi.

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Iqtisodiyotda pul miqdorining oshishi

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tovar va xizmatlar uchun talab egri chizig'ini

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o'ngga siljitadi.

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Bu o'zgarish mahsulot ishlab chiqarish

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hajmi o'sishi bilan ta'minlanmaganligi

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tufayli narxlar ko'tariladi.

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Bunga quyidagicha qarash mumkin:

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agar davlat million dollar
pul bosib chiqarib,

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uni mamlakatdagi har bir odamga jo'natsa

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va hamma sport mashinasi

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sotib olmoqchi bo'lsa...

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lekin mamlakatdagi mavjud

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sport mashinalari soni cheklangan,

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shu sababli uning narxini

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oshirish mantiqan to'g'ri bo'ladi.

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Qiyoslash uchun quyidagini ko'rib chiqaylik:

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kimsasiz orol 4 kishi bor,

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deb faraz qiling.

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Ularning har birida 10 tadan meva bor.

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Mevalar bir xil qiymatga ega.

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Ular olma daraxti to'la o'rmon
topib oldi, deb endi faraz qiling.

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Olmalarning nominal qiymati oshadi,

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chunki ularning soni ko'paydi,

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lekin asl qiymati pasayadi,

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chunki taklif ham



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oshgan.

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Shuning uchun 10 dona olmaga

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1 dona banan teng keladi,

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chunki olmaga bo'lgan talab past,

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lekin bananga bo'lgan talab yuqori.

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Ushbu qiyosiy misolda odamlar

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turli mamakatlarni,

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mevalar ularning valyutalarini,

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olmazor esa bosib chiqarilgan pulni
tasvirlaydi.

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Juda ko'p pul bosib chiqarish
noto'g'ri ekanligi

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bizga nafaqat iqtisodiy
nazariyadan ma'lum.

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Yaqin tarixdan bizga
bir necha misollar ma'lum.

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Eng oxirgisi Zimbabve bo'lib,
u 2008 yilda pul bosib chiqarish

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oqibatida juda yuqoru
inflyatsiyani boshdan kechirdi.

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Bu holat prezident Mugabening
xato qarorlari natijasida yuzaga keldi.

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Iqtisodiy vaziyat og'irlashganda, Mugabe

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davlat xarajatlarini qoplash uchun

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yanada ko'proq pul bosib chiqardi.

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Bu inflyatsiyaning keskin oshib ketishiga

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olib keldi va 2008 yil noyabr oyi o'rtalarida

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Zimbabveda inflyatsiya darajasi...

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Shoshmang, bir soniya sabr qiling.

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Avval men sizga vaziyatni tushunish
uchun qo'shimcha ma'lumot beray.

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Qo'shma Shtatlarida inflyatsiya
darajasi 2 foiz atrofida.

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Odatda iqtisodchilar 1-3 foizlik

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inflyatsiya darajasini optimal deb hisoblaydilar.

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Birinchi dunyo mamlakatlarida hozirda
inflyatsiya darajasi 0-5 foiz atrofida.

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Agar inflyatsiya darajasi 50 foizdan oshsa,

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bu mamlakatda giperinflyatsiya boshlanganini anglatadi.

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Shuni hisobga olgan holda,

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Zimbabveda inflyatsiyaning eng yuqori

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darajasi... 6,5... sekstillion foizga yetgan!

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Boshqacha qilib aytganda,
bu son 22 raqamdan iborat!

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Ahvol shunchalik yomon ediki,

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narxlar har 24 soatda ikki barobar oshar edi!

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Davlat muammoni katta nominaldagi pullarni

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yanada ko'proq bosib chiqarish

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orqali hal qilishga harakat qildi.

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Ular Zimbabve dollaridagi nollardan voz

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kechish orqali uni 3 marta
denominatsiya qildi,

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4 marta 4 xil ISO kodli

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valuytani muomalaga kiritdi.

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Oxirgi denominatsiyadan oldin ular
yuz trillion dollar

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nominaldagi kupyuralarni bosib chiqarayotgan edi.

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Odamlar non sotib
olish uchun pullarini

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tom ma'noda aravada tashiganlar.

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Qaysidir payt davlat inflyatsiyani
hatto noqonuniy qilib ham qo'ydi,

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narxni ko'targani uchun
esa odamlarni qamoqqa oldi.

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2009 yilda Zimbabve dollari bekor qilindi

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va bugungi kunga qadar ularda

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00:05:55.332 --> 00:05:57.332
milliy valyuta mavjud emas.

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Aholi AQSh dollari,
funt sterling va yevro kabi

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00:05:59.620 --> 00:06:02.081
valyutalardan foydalanadi.

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00:06:02.081 --> 00:06:03.502
Giperinflyatsiyadan oldin

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00:06:03.502 --> 00:06:04.658
bir Zimbabve dollari

191
00:06:04.658 --> 00:06:07.243
1,25 AQSh dollariga teng bo'lgan.

192
00:06:07.243 --> 00:06:09.015
Agar bir yuz trillion dollarlik kupyura

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yuqoridagi valuyta kursida ayirboshlanganda edi,

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u dunyodagi mavjud barcha
pullarning qiymatidan...

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ikki barobarga ko'p
bo'lgan bo'lar edi.

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Biroq, bu qanchalik bema'ni eshitilmasin,

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u tarixda 1946 yilda

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Vengriyada kuzatilgan inflyatsiyadan

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keyin ikkinchi o'rinda turadi.

200
00:06:28.369 --> 00:06:29.966
Zimbabvedagi inflyatsiya 2008 yil

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noyabr oyi o'rtalarida eng yuqori cho'qqisiga yetib,

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oylik eng yuqori inflyatsiya darajasi
79,6 milliard foizni tashkil qilgan.

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Vengriyada oylik inflyatsiya eng yuqori
darajaga 1946 yil iyul oyida yetib, u

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41,9 kvadrillion foizni tashkil qilgan, narxlar esa
har 15 soatda ikki barobarga oshgan.

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Buni tushunish uchun agar solishtirsak,

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inflyatsiya darajasi 3 foiz, ya'ni
me'yorda bo'lgan mamlakatlarda,

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narxlar har 23 yilda ikki barobarga oshadi.

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Ularning valyutasi «pengo» bo'lib,

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inflyatsiya oshgani
sari «b.-pengo»

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(bir milliardlik pengoning qisqacha nomi)

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muomalaga kiritildi, lekin u aslida
1 trillion pengoga teng bo'lgan.

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Eng yuqori oylik inflyatsiya darajasi

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bo'yicha rekorddan tashqari,

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tarixda eng katta nominaldagi kupyuyra

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bo'yicha rekord ham Vengriyaga tegishli

216
00:07:09.991 --> 00:07:13.526
bo'lib, u 100 million
b.-pengo kupyurasini,

217
00:07:13.526 --> 00:07:15.648
ya'ni 100 million milliard, boshqacha

218
00:07:15.648 --> 00:07:17.552
qilib aytganda 100 kvintillion pengoga

219
00:07:17.552 --> 00:07:19.178
teng kupyurani bosib chiqargan edi.

220
00:07:19.178 --> 00:07:23.102
1 milliard b.-pengo kupyuralari ham bosib chiqarilgan,
ammo ular hech qachon muomalaga chiqarilmagan.

221
00:07:23.102 --> 00:07:27.924
1941 yilda valyuta kursi 1 AQSh dollariga
5 pengoni tashkil qilgan.

222
00:07:27.924 --> 00:07:30.478
1946 yilda valuyta muomaladan
chiqarilgandan so'ng

223
00:07:30.478 --> 00:07:32.478
vaziyat shunchalik izdan chiqqan ediki,

224
00:07:32.478 --> 00:07:36.429
agar mamlakatdagi barcha
banknotalarni bitta joyga yig'sangiz,

225
00:07:36.429 --> 00:07:41.655
ularning qiymati 1 AQSh tsentining
o'ndan biriga teng bo'lgan.

226
00:07:44.002 --> 00:07:45.881
Undan so'ng, Vengriya forint pul birligini

227
00:07:45.881 --> 00:07:50.113
muomalaga chiqardi. 1 forint
400 oktillion pengoga teng bo'lib,

228
00:07:50.113 --> 00:07:54.403
bu raqam 29 noldan iborat.

229
00:07:54.403 --> 00:07:56.403
Shuning uchun ham qarzni to'lash
uchun davlat uchun shunchaki

230
00:07:56.403 --> 00:07:58.965
pul bosib chiqara olmaydi.
Bu yaxshilik bilan tugamaydi.

231
00:08:01.085 --> 00:08:04.588
Davlat qarzi aynan nima ekanligini bilish ham muhimdir.

232
00:08:04.588 --> 00:08:07.413
Davlat qarzi shaxsiy qarzdan
ancha murakkab tushuncha.

233
00:08:07.413 --> 00:08:10.431
Bu shunchaki «siz boshqalardan
qarzdor» degani emas.

234
00:08:10.431 --> 00:08:13.205
Eng yuqori davlat qarzi
bo'lgan Qo'shma Shtatlarida

235
00:08:13.205 --> 00:08:16.651
17 trillion dollarga
teng qarz bor.

236
00:08:16.651 --> 00:08:20.205
AQSh qaysi mamlakat oldida eng katta
qarzga ega ekanligini ham balki bilsangiz kerak...

237
00:08:20.205 --> 00:08:21.769
bu Xitoy.

238
00:08:21.769 --> 00:08:22.935
Bu garchi rost bo'lsada,

239
00:08:22.935 --> 00:08:24.440
yuqoridagi ma'lumot biroz
adashmovchilikka olib kelishi mumkin.

240
00:08:24.440 --> 00:08:27.882
Jami qarzning atigi
8 foizi Xitoyga tegishli.

241
00:08:27.882 --> 00:08:29.882
Qarzning eng katta qismi

242
00:08:29.882 --> 00:08:31.882
AQSh hukumatining o'ziga,

243
00:08:31.882 --> 00:08:35.814
Ijtimoiy Himoya Fondi va Federal Rezerv
kabi tashkilotlar hissasiga to'g'ri keladi.

244
00:08:35.814 --> 00:08:39.831
Buning ustiga, yana 30 foizi AQSh
fuqarolari hissasiga to'g'ri keladi.

245
00:08:39.831 --> 00:08:42.658
17 trillionning 8 foizi garchi
katta miqdor bo'lsada,

246
00:08:42.658 --> 00:08:44.713
Xitoy Oq Uy eshigini qoqib,

247
00:08:44.713 --> 00:08:47.124
1,2 trillion dollarni
shunchaki talab qila olmaydi.

248
00:08:47.124 --> 00:08:49.680
Bu bunday sodir bo'lmaydi.

249
00:08:49.680 --> 00:08:53.364
Asosan Qo'shma Shtatlari G'aznachilik
Boshqarmasi davlat obligatsiyalarini chiqaradi.

250
00:08:53.364 --> 00:08:54.481
Siz ularni

251
00:08:54.481 --> 00:08:55.891
sotib olishingiz mumkin
va davlat sizga

252
00:08:55.891 --> 00:08:57.403
har yili foiz to'laydi.

253
00:08:57.403 --> 00:08:58.988
Obligatsiyalarning muddati kelganda

254
00:08:58.988 --> 00:09:01.835
davlat sizdan obligatsiyalarini
qayta sotib oladi.

255
00:09:01.835 --> 00:09:04.104
Agar davlat moliyaviy muammolarga
duch kelsa, u qarzni to'lay olmay,

256
00:09:04.104 --> 00:09:05.619
defoltga uchraydi.

257
00:09:05.619 --> 00:09:08.280
Bu siz pulingizni qaytarib ola
olmaysiz degan ma'noni anglatadi.

258
00:09:08.280 --> 00:09:11.307
Umuman olganda, AQSh
investitsiya uchun riski juda past

259
00:09:11.307 --> 00:09:13.307
bo'lgan mamlakat hosoblanadi,
chunki AQSh dollari dunyoda

260
00:09:13.307 --> 00:09:15.793
eng ko'p qo'llaniladigan
va eng ishonchli valyutadir.

261
00:09:15.793 --> 00:09:17.703
AQSh qarz bo'yicha defolt e'lon

262
00:09:17.703 --> 00:09:21.258
qila olmasligi hattoki uning
Konstitutsiyasida yozib qo'yilgan.

263
00:09:21.258 --> 00:09:23.039
Men nima uchun davlat

264
00:09:23.039 --> 00:09:25.166
cheksiz miqdorda pul
bosib chiqara olmasligi

265
00:09:25.166 --> 00:09:29.170
sababini lo'nda xulosa
bilan yakunlayman:

266
00:09:29.170 --> 00:09:31.388
«Agar pul daraxtda o'sganda edi...

267
00:09:31.388 --> 00:09:35.160
uning qadri barglar qadridek bo'lar edi».

268
00:09:35.160 --> 00:09:38.697
Tomosha qilganingiz uchun rahmat.