WEBVTT FILE

1
00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:03.083
Have you ever wondered why countries

2
00:00:03.123 --> 00:00:04.412
can't just print more money

3
00:00:04.452 --> 00:00:05.524
to pay off their debts,

4
00:00:05.564 --> 00:00:06.530
or to feed the homeless,

5
00:00:06.570 --> 00:00:07.815
or to fix unemployment,

6
00:00:07.855 --> 00:00:10.108
or any other issue for that matter?

7
00:00:10.148 --> 00:00:11.111
Now this might seem like

8
00:00:11.151 --> 00:00:12.111
a rather silly question,

9
00:00:12.151 --> 00:00:13.489
but I think it’s one of those questions

10
00:00:13.529 --> 00:00:15.254
that people might be
too embarrassed to ask.

11
00:00:15.294 --> 00:00:17.821
But there’s no shortage
of people wondering.

12
00:00:17.861 --> 00:00:20.500
The short answer can be
summed up in one word –

13
00:00:20.540 --> 00:00:21.951
inflation.

14
00:00:21.991 --> 00:00:23.134
Inflation is defined as

15
00:00:23.174 --> 00:00:24.659
‘a persistent, substantial rise

16
00:00:24.699 --> 00:00:26.409
in the general level of prices related to

17
00:00:26.449 --> 00:00:27.813
an increase in the volume of money,

18
00:00:27.853 --> 00:00:30.191
resulting in a loss of value of currency.’

19
00:00:30.231 --> 00:00:31.519
But I’ll get to that.

20
00:00:31.559 --> 00:00:33.209
First though, we need to establish

21
00:00:33.249 --> 00:00:36.855
exactly what money… is.

22
00:00:36.895 --> 00:00:37.993
Now this may seem obvious,

23
00:00:38.033 --> 00:00:40.347
but something that you need to
understand is that money

24
00:00:40.387 --> 00:00:44.487
has absolutely no intrinsic value.

25
00:00:44.527 --> 00:00:46.145
What that means is that money in itself

26
00:00:46.185 --> 00:00:47.333
has no actual value.

27
00:00:47.373 --> 00:00:48.577
It’s only considered valuable

28
00:00:48.617 --> 00:00:50.097
because it can buy things.

29
00:00:50.137 --> 00:00:51.910
But if you were stranded
on a desert island,

30
00:00:51.950 --> 00:00:54.946
money would be totally useless.

31
00:00:54.986 --> 00:00:56.111
Money only has value

32
00:00:56.151 --> 00:00:58.011
because we believe it has value.

33
00:00:58.051 --> 00:01:00.111
This is called a Tinkerbell Effect,

34
00:01:00.151 --> 00:01:02.402
something I learned about from Vsauce.

35
00:01:02.442 --> 00:01:03.620
The Tinkerbell Effect is used

36
00:01:03.660 --> 00:01:05.410
to describe something that only exists

37
00:01:05.450 --> 00:01:07.811
because we believe it exists.

38
00:01:07.851 --> 00:01:09.409
And this is the case with money.

39
00:01:09.449 --> 00:01:10.460
Hypothetically speaking,

40
00:01:10.500 --> 00:01:11.960
if people suddenly started to believe

41
00:01:12.000 --> 00:01:13.728
that money had no value,

42
00:01:13.768 --> 00:01:16.208
it wouldn’t have value.

43
00:01:16.248 --> 00:01:18.028
Of course it wasn’t always this way.

44
00:01:18.068 --> 00:01:19.560
Money has been around for a millennia,

45
00:01:19.600 --> 00:01:20.614
and when it was first used

46
00:01:20.654 --> 00:01:23.587
it was in the form of commodity money.

47
00:01:23.627 --> 00:01:25.894
Things were traded
that had actual value and uses,

48
00:01:25.934 --> 00:01:28.503
like salt, spices, horses and weapons,

49
00:01:28.543 --> 00:01:30.836
as well as precious metals
such as gold and silver,

50
00:01:30.876 --> 00:01:32.006
which technically don’t have

51
00:01:32.046 --> 00:01:33.310
any intrinsic value either,

52
00:01:33.350 --> 00:01:34.838
but due to their rarity they’re almost

53
00:01:34.878 --> 00:01:37.767
universally accepted as currency.

54
00:01:37.807 --> 00:01:39.678
Then we have representative money.

55
00:01:39.718 --> 00:01:42.071
Since carrying around everything
you own can be difficult,

56
00:01:42.111 --> 00:01:44.128
representative money makes more sense.

57
00:01:44.168 --> 00:01:46.082
Basically you give your gold to a bank,

58
00:01:46.122 --> 00:01:47.557
and they keep it safe for you,

59
00:01:47.597 --> 00:01:49.414
and in return they give you
a piece of paper

60
00:01:49.454 --> 00:01:51.534
acknowledging that you own that gold.

61
00:01:51.574 --> 00:01:52.996
These pieces of paper can therefore

62
00:01:53.036 --> 00:01:54.345
be used as money as anyone

63
00:01:54.385 --> 00:01:56.565
can go and redeem the gold at any time.

64
00:01:56.605 --> 00:01:57.565
But today,

65
00:01:57.605 --> 00:01:58.938
almost every country in the world

66
00:01:58.978 --> 00:02:00.861
uses fiat money.

67
00:02:00.901 --> 00:02:03.416
Fiat money requires faith
and trust in the government

68
00:02:03.456 --> 00:02:05.151
that their money will have value.

69
00:02:05.191 --> 00:02:06.582
If we use a relatively young country

70
00:02:06.622 --> 00:02:07.499
as an example,

71
00:02:07.539 --> 00:02:09.112
the United States has gone through all of

72
00:02:09.152 --> 00:02:12.156
3 monetary systems within 200 years.

73
00:02:12.196 --> 00:02:14.156
In 1792, when the United States

74
00:02:14.196 --> 00:02:15.518
stopped using European money,

75
00:02:15.558 --> 00:02:17.049
the Coinage Act of 1792

76
00:02:17.089 --> 00:02:19.049
brought the inception of the US dollar.

77
00:02:19.089 --> 00:02:20.664
The US dollar was originally in the form

78
00:02:20.704 --> 00:02:22.062
of commodity money, in the form of

79
00:02:22.102 --> 00:02:24.434
gold, silver and copper coins.

80
00:02:24.474 --> 00:02:26.169
The coins were actually made from real

81
00:02:26.209 --> 00:02:27.176
gold, silver and copper,

82
00:02:27.216 --> 00:02:28.234
and the value of the metal

83
00:02:28.274 --> 00:02:29.956
that made the coins were exactly

84
00:02:29.996 --> 00:02:32.142
equal to their face value.

85
00:02:32.182 --> 00:02:33.792
The country then moved on to a mixture of

86
00:02:33.832 --> 00:02:35.406
commodity and representative money

87
00:02:35.446 --> 00:02:38.102
with the 1900 Gold Standard Act.

88
00:02:38.142 --> 00:02:39.487
The government issued dollar bills

89
00:02:39.527 --> 00:02:42.466
which could be exchanged
for gold at any time.

90
00:02:42.506 --> 00:02:44.535
Gold Standard is a type of
representative money

91
00:02:44.575 --> 00:02:46.535
that many countries used at the time.

92
00:02:46.575 --> 00:02:47.729
This was an effective way

93
00:02:47.769 --> 00:02:48.794
to accurately calculate

94
00:02:48.834 --> 00:02:50.638
the exchange rate between countries.

95
00:02:50.678 --> 00:02:52.298
For example, if one gram of gold

96
00:02:52.338 --> 00:02:55.190
costs £1 in Britain,
and $1.50 in America,

97
00:02:55.230 --> 00:02:58.792
then you can easily deduce
that £1 must equal $1.50.

98
00:02:58.832 --> 00:03:00.566
Gold coins were discontinued

99
00:03:00.606 --> 00:03:01.609
and the silver was removed

100
00:03:01.649 --> 00:03:02.548
from the other coins,

101
00:03:02.588 --> 00:03:03.910
effectively ending commodity money

102
00:03:03.950 --> 00:03:05.646
in the United States.

103
00:03:05.686 --> 00:03:07.316
In 1971, Richard Nixon

104
00:03:07.356 --> 00:03:08.901
officially abandoned the Gold Standard,

105
00:03:08.941 --> 00:03:11.362
and the US moved on to fiat money.

106
00:03:11.402 --> 00:03:13.145
So today money isn't backed by gold

107
00:03:13.185 --> 00:03:16.615
or anything else of value for that matter.

108
00:03:16.655 --> 00:03:18.166
So back to the question at hand.

109
00:03:18.206 --> 00:03:20.274
A supply and demand graph shows why

110
00:03:20.314 --> 00:03:21.597
this leads to a rise in prices.

111
00:03:21.637 --> 00:03:22.848
More money in the economy

112
00:03:22.888 --> 00:03:24.246
causes a shift in the demand curve

113
00:03:24.286 --> 00:03:25.412
for goods and services.

114
00:03:25.452 --> 00:03:26.636
But since this isn't matched

115
00:03:26.676 --> 00:03:28.220
by an increase in economic output,

116
00:03:28.260 --> 00:03:30.059
prices must rise.

117
00:03:30.099 --> 00:03:31.059
Look at it this way -

118
00:03:31.099 --> 00:03:32.823
if the government
printed a million dollars

119
00:03:32.863 --> 00:03:34.581
and posted it to everyone in the country,

120
00:03:34.621 --> 00:03:35.640
causing everyone to go out

121
00:03:35.680 --> 00:03:37.046
and buy a sports car...

122
00:03:37.086 --> 00:03:38.394
but there's only a finite number

123
00:03:38.434 --> 00:03:39.854
of sports cars in the country,

124
00:03:39.894 --> 00:03:41.010
so the logical thing to do

125
00:03:41.050 --> 00:03:44.347
is to increase the price of a sports car.

126
00:03:44.387 --> 00:03:46.347
If we use an analogy to demonstrate this,

127
00:03:46.387 --> 00:03:47.496
imagine there's 4 people

128
00:03:47.536 --> 00:03:48.562
on a desert island.

129
00:03:48.602 --> 00:03:50.706
They each have 10 pieces of fruit.

130
00:03:50.746 --> 00:03:53.180
All fruits are considered equal in value.

131
00:03:53.220 --> 00:03:55.960
Now imagine they discover
a whole forest of apple trees.

132
00:03:56.000 --> 00:03:57.960
The nominal value of apples has increased

133
00:03:58.000 --> 00:03:59.364
because there's more of them,

134
00:03:59.404 --> 00:04:00.979
but the actual value of an apple

135
00:04:01.019 --> 00:04:01.979
has gone down

136
00:04:02.019 --> 00:04:03.980
due to an increase in supply.

137
00:04:04.020 --> 00:04:05.177
Therefore it now costs

138
00:04:05.217 --> 00:04:06.660
10 apples for 1 banana

139
00:04:06.700 --> 00:04:08.260
since demand for apples is low,

140
00:04:08.300 --> 00:04:10.260
but high for bananas.

141
00:04:10.300 --> 00:04:11.959
Just to clarify, in this analogy,

142
00:04:11.999 --> 00:04:13.802
the people represent different countries,

143
00:04:13.842 --> 00:04:15.499
the fruit their respective currency,

144
00:04:15.539 --> 00:04:18.639
and the apple tree is the printed money.

145
00:04:18.679 --> 00:04:20.591
But it's not just because
of economic theory

146
00:04:20.631 --> 00:04:22.683
that we know printing
too much money is a bad idea.

147
00:04:22.723 --> 00:04:25.470
There's several examples
throughout recent history.

148
00:04:25.510 --> 00:04:28.663
The most recent example is
Zimbabwe, who in 2008,

149
00:04:28.703 --> 00:04:31.886
suffered extremely high inflation
due to printing money.

150
00:04:31.926 --> 00:04:34.972
This was the result of some awful
decisions by President Mugabe.

151
00:04:35.012 --> 00:04:36.732
When the economy took
a turn for the worse,

152
00:04:36.772 --> 00:04:38.043
Mugabe printed more money

153
00:04:38.083 --> 00:04:39.875
to pay government expenditure.

154
00:04:39.915 --> 00:04:41.694
This caused inflation to skyrocket,

155
00:04:41.734 --> 00:04:43.694
and, in mid-November 2008,

156
00:04:43.734 --> 00:04:45.694
Zimbabwe's inflation peaked at...

157
00:04:45.734 --> 00:04:47.284
Actually wait, hold on a second.

158
00:04:47.324 --> 00:04:49.790
First I need to provide some context.

159
00:04:49.830 --> 00:04:52.224
Inflation in the United States
is around 2%.

160
00:04:52.264 --> 00:04:53.602
Economists generally agree that

161
00:04:53.642 --> 00:04:56.380
inflation levels of 1-3% are optimum.

162
00:04:56.420 --> 00:05:00.212
First-world countries' inflation rates
today range from 0-5%.

163
00:05:00.252 --> 00:05:02.212
A country is said to enter hyperinflation

164
00:05:02.252 --> 00:05:05.587
when their inflation levels exceed 50%.

165
00:05:05.627 --> 00:05:07.587
So... with that in mind,

166
00:05:07.627 --> 00:05:09.587
Zimbabwe's inflation, at its peak,

167
00:05:09.627 --> 00:05:15.334
reached... 6.5... sextillion %!

168
00:05:15.374 --> 00:05:19.854
Or to put that another way,
that number has 22 digits!

169
00:05:19.894 --> 00:05:21.841
It got so bad that prices doubled

170
00:05:21.881 --> 00:05:23.601
every 24 hours!

171
00:05:23.641 --> 00:05:25.250
The government tried to solve the problem

172
00:05:25.290 --> 00:05:26.535
by printing more and more money

173
00:05:26.575 --> 00:05:28.535
with higher and higher denominations.

174
00:05:28.575 --> 00:05:30.444
They also kept knocking zeros off the end

175
00:05:30.484 --> 00:05:32.955
by re-valuing the Zimbabwean
dollar 3 times,

176
00:05:32.995 --> 00:05:34.446
going through 4 different currencies

177
00:05:34.486 --> 00:05:36.840
with 4 different ISO codes.

178
00:05:36.880 --> 00:05:38.912
Before the final re-denomination,
they were printing

179
00:05:38.952 --> 00:05:41.395
100 trillion dollar bills.

180
00:05:41.435 --> 00:05:44.099
People were literally using
wheelbarrows full of cash

181
00:05:44.139 --> 00:05:45.862
to buy a loaf of bread.

182
00:05:45.902 --> 00:05:48.709
The government even made inflation
illegal at one point,

183
00:05:48.749 --> 00:05:52.138
and people were actually arrested
for raising prices.

184
00:05:52.178 --> 00:05:54.012
In 2009, the Zimbabwean dollar

185
00:05:54.052 --> 00:05:55.292
was abandoned, and to this day

186
00:05:55.332 --> 00:05:57.292
they still have no national currency.

187
00:05:57.332 --> 00:05:59.580
Their people use currencies
such as the US dollar,

188
00:05:59.620 --> 00:06:02.041
the pound sterling, and the Euro.

189
00:06:02.081 --> 00:06:03.462
Before the hyperinflation,

190
00:06:03.502 --> 00:06:04.618
the first Zimbabwean dollar

191
00:06:04.658 --> 00:06:07.203
was worth about $1.25.

192
00:06:07.243 --> 00:06:08.975
If that 100 trillion dollar bill

193
00:06:09.015 --> 00:06:10.630
was worth that exchange rate,

194
00:06:10.670 --> 00:06:13.098
that single bill would be
worth more money

195
00:06:13.138 --> 00:06:20.413
than there is in
the entire world... twice.

196
00:06:20.453 --> 00:06:22.102
But as ridiculous as this was,

197
00:06:22.142 --> 00:06:23.736
this is only considered to be

198
00:06:23.776 --> 00:06:25.537
the 2nd worst inflation in history,

199
00:06:25.577 --> 00:06:28.329
after Hungary in 1946.

200
00:06:28.369 --> 00:06:29.926
Although Zimbabwe's inflation peaked

201
00:06:29.966 --> 00:06:31.654
in mid-November of 2008,

202
00:06:31.694 --> 00:06:35.885
their overall highest monthly
inflation was 79.6 billion %,

203
00:06:35.925 --> 00:06:39.789
whereas Hungary's highest monthly inflation,
which took place in July 1946,

204
00:06:39.829 --> 00:06:46.040
was 41.9 quadrillion %,
with prices doubling every 15 hours.

205
00:06:46.080 --> 00:06:47.522
To put that into perspective,

206
00:06:47.562 --> 00:06:50.361
a country with a healthy inflation
rate of around 3%,

207
00:06:50.401 --> 00:06:54.168
prices double every 23 years.

208
00:06:54.208 --> 00:06:56.168
Their currency was called the pengő,

209
00:06:56.208 --> 00:06:58.799
and as inflation rose,
the b.-pengő was introduced,

210
00:06:58.839 --> 00:07:00.799
short for billion pengő,

211
00:07:00.839 --> 00:07:04.623
which is actually 1 trillion pengő
on the short-scale.

212
00:07:04.663 --> 00:07:05.716
As well as the record

213
00:07:05.756 --> 00:07:07.136
for the highest monthly inflation,

214
00:07:07.176 --> 00:07:08.301
Hungary also holds the record

215
00:07:08.341 --> 00:07:09.951
for the highest denomination banknote

216
00:07:09.991 --> 00:07:13.486
ever issued - the 100 million
b.-pengő note,

217
00:07:13.526 --> 00:07:15.608
i.e. 100 million billion,

218
00:07:15.648 --> 00:07:17.512
which is 100 quintillion pengő

219
00:07:17.552 --> 00:07:19.138
on the short-scale.

220
00:07:19.178 --> 00:07:23.062
1 milliard b.-pengő notes were
printed but never issued.

221
00:07:23.102 --> 00:07:27.884
In 1941, the exchange rate
was about 5 pengő to $1.

222
00:07:27.924 --> 00:07:30.438
In 1946, when the currency
was discontinued,

223
00:07:30.478 --> 00:07:32.438
things had gotten so out of hand

224
00:07:32.478 --> 00:07:36.389
that if you took every single banknote
in the entire country,

225
00:07:36.429 --> 00:07:41.655
they would have a total value of
one tenth of a US penny.

226
00:07:44.002 --> 00:07:45.841
Hungary then switched to the forint,

227
00:07:45.881 --> 00:07:50.073
where 1 forint equaled
400 octillion pengő -

228
00:07:50.113 --> 00:07:54.363
that number has 29 zeros.

229
00:07:54.403 --> 00:07:56.363
So that's why governments
can't just print money

230
00:07:56.403 --> 00:07:58.965
to pay off their debt.
It does not end well.

231
00:08:01.085 --> 00:08:04.548
It is also important to understand
exactly what national debt is.

232
00:08:04.588 --> 00:08:07.373
National debt is much more
complicated than personal debt.

233
00:08:07.413 --> 00:08:10.391
It isn't simply a case of
'you owe people money.'

234
00:08:10.431 --> 00:08:13.165
Take the country with the highest
national debt - the United States,

235
00:08:13.205 --> 00:08:16.611
that currently has around
17 trillion dollars of debt.

236
00:08:16.651 --> 00:08:20.165
And you're probably aware
the country that holds most US debt is...

237
00:08:20.205 --> 00:08:21.729
China.

238
00:08:21.769 --> 00:08:22.895
Although that is true,

239
00:08:22.935 --> 00:08:24.400
it's somewhat misleading.

240
00:08:24.440 --> 00:08:27.842
Of the total debt,
China only has about 8%.

241
00:08:27.882 --> 00:08:29.842
Most of the debt is actually owned by

242
00:08:29.882 --> 00:08:31.842
the United States government itself,

243
00:08:31.882 --> 00:08:35.774
by organizations such as Social Security
or the Federal Reserve.

244
00:08:35.814 --> 00:08:39.791
On top of this, a further 30%
is owned by US citizens.

245
00:08:39.831 --> 00:08:42.618
And even though 8%
of 17 trillion is still a lot,

246
00:08:42.658 --> 00:08:44.673
China can't just knock on the door
of the White House

247
00:08:44.713 --> 00:08:47.084
and demand $1.2 trillion.

248
00:08:47.124 --> 00:08:49.640
It doesn't work like that.

249
00:08:49.680 --> 00:08:53.324
Basically, the US Department of
the Treasury issue treasury bonds.

250
00:08:53.364 --> 00:08:54.441
You can buy these bonds

251
00:08:54.481 --> 00:08:55.851
and the government
will pay you interest

252
00:08:55.891 --> 00:08:57.363
on that bond every year.

253
00:08:57.403 --> 00:08:58.948
Then, once the bonds have matured,

254
00:08:58.988 --> 00:09:01.795
they'll buy the treasury
bond back from you.

255
00:09:01.835 --> 00:09:04.064
Now, if a country gets
into financial trouble,

256
00:09:04.104 --> 00:09:05.579
it may have to default on its debt,

257
00:09:05.619 --> 00:09:08.240
which basically means
you won't get your money back.

258
00:09:08.280 --> 00:09:11.267
But the US is generally considered
an extremely risk-free investment

259
00:09:11.307 --> 00:09:13.267
because the US dollar
is the most widely used

260
00:09:13.307 --> 00:09:15.753
and the most trust-worthy
currency in the world.

261
00:09:15.793 --> 00:09:17.663
It's even written into the Constitution

262
00:09:17.703 --> 00:09:21.218
that the United States
cannot default on its debt.

263
00:09:21.258 --> 00:09:22.999
I'll leave you with this final thought

264
00:09:23.039 --> 00:09:25.126
and what I think is possibly
the best way to sum up

265
00:09:25.166 --> 00:09:29.130
why governments can't just print off
unlimited amounts of money.

266
00:09:29.170 --> 00:09:31.348
'If money grew on trees...

267
00:09:31.388 --> 00:09:35.120
it would be as valuable as leaves.'

268
00:09:35.160 --> 00:09:38.697
Thanks for watching.

