WEBVTT FILE

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MRUniversity.com
Iqtisodiyotni o'rganing, dunyoni tushuning

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Iqtisodiyot lug'ati

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«Samarali bozor» gipotezasi nima



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«Samarali bozor» gipotezasi nima?



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Ushbu gipotezaning asosiy g'oyasi
shundan iborat:

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aksiyalar kabi savdo qilinadigan
aktivlarning narxi

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allaqachon hammaga ma'lum bo'lgan
ma'lumotni o'zida aks etadi, shu sababli,

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agar ommaviy ma'lumotlarga asoslanib
investitsiya qilsangiz, siz

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uzoq muddatda muntazam ravishda hammadan
muvaffaqiyatliroq bo'la olmaysiz.

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O'ylab ko'ring: odatda,

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xaridorlarda sotuvchilarda bo'lgan
ma'lumot bor, va aksincha.

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Demak, aksiya narxining
ko'tarilish ehtimoli uning

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pasayish ehtimoliga teng.

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Aksiyalarning rentabelligini
oldindan bilish murakkab,

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chunki eski ma'lumot allaqachon
aksiya narxlarida aks etilgan,

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yangi ma'lumot esa, ta'rifiga asosan,
kutilmagan yoki tasodifiy bo'ladi.

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Misol olaylik:

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1986-yil, 28-yanvar, sharqiy standart
vaqti bilan soat 11:39da

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«Challenger» orbita kosmik kemasi
katta fojia bilan portlab,

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barcha kemadagi vafot etdi.

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Sakkiz daqiqadan so'ng yangiliklar Dow Jonesning
simli aloqa xizmatiga yetib keldi.

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O'sha paytlar aloqalar tezkor xabar
almashishdan oldin ancha sekin edi.

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O'sha kun

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kemani qurishda ishtirok etgan

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Mortion Thiokol, Lockheed,

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Martin Marietta va
Rockwell International kabi

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barcha pudratchilarning aksiya narxlari
birdaninga 2-3% tushib ketdi,

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Morton Thiokol korporatsiyasi
aksiya narxi esa 11% dan ko'p tushdi.

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Fojianing asosiy sababchisi
Morton Thiokol ekanligini

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bozor to'g'ri topgan
bo'lib chiqdi

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va bir-necha soat ichida ushbu
ma'lumot bozor narxlarida aks etgan.

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Rasmiy tekshiruv 6 oydan keyin
boshlangan bo'lib,

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Morton Thiokol ishlab chiqargan
uskuna fojiaga sababiga

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bog'liq deb topilgan.

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Bu 1986-yilda bo'lgan.

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Bugungi kunda yangi
ma'lumot bozorlarga

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soatlar yoki daqiqalar ichida emas,
balki soniyalar va milli soniyalar ichida

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– ko'z oshib yumguncha –

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ta'sir etishni boshlab, samarali bozor
gipotezasisini yanada samarali qiladi.

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[musiqa sadosi]